What happens when the water runs out?

By Ande Jacobson

“What happens when the water runs out” is a key question asked in The Black Wolf, the twentieth (and currently the latest) mystery novel in Louise Penny’s Gamache series. Penny wrote the book in 2024 and finished writing before the U.S. election that year though the book wasn’t released until October 2025. Surprisingly, the story mirrors the 2025 reality in startling and disturbing ways. It’s almost as though Penny was clairvoyant picking up immediately after the crisis solved in The Grey Wolf. Her cliffhanger stated outright that there was more to the crisis than they thought. What Armand Gamache didn’t know in leading his Sûreté du Québec Homicide division team was that they faced a crisis of international proportions borne of government corruption and environmental changes on a scale they couldn’t imagine. He’d kept that last case close to only himself and his seconds, Jean-Guy Beauvoir and Isabelle Lacoste, the only fully trusted members of his team. This time he continues this, but even with them, he holds back some key components he’s able to put together along the way. The previous book dealt with a plot to poison the Montréal metro area’s water supply. This one asks the question of what happens when the water runs out?

Clean water is crucial for human survival, and with climate change, many parts of the world are seeing critical shortages. Canada is resource rich. Even with climate change affecting the world, Canada is unlikely to run out of clean water for itself. Unfortunately its nearest neighbor isn’t in the same position, and when resources run short, people aren’t always rational or altruistic. Worse than that, some corrupt individuals use such crises to enrich themselves and entrench power. That is the backdrop for The Black Wolf. There is a move afoot, but the key question once they realize what is happening is who is calling the shots, how far does the conspiracy reach, and can they stop it before it’s too late?

Armand had enlisted Shona Dorion to help his team in the last book, and that alliance remains intact in the current book. They need her, and she realizes that she needs them as well. She’s torn as she starts to gain a modicum of respect for Armand after spending her life hating him and trying to attack him for what she believes he did to her mother. Their history is fraught as Armand had arrested Shona’s mother when Shona was very young. Her mother had killed a man who was threatening great harm to Shona at the time, something that came to light much later. Although her mother was an addict and a prostitute, she was also a very loving mother, and she did her best to protect her daughter. Once her mother was incarcerated, Shona ended up in the system. While her mother was in custody, she committed suicide, an act for which Shona has long blamed Armand. Despite this schism, Shona proves an invaluable asset in the investigation able to do some things that the police could not. She also enlists her mentor to help them as their investigation uncovers an unexpectedly deep level of corruption. In fact, Shona and her mentor are the ones who find the key elements that allow the team to fully solve the crisis, but not without plenty of terror along the way.

As for the parallels to real life, the truly disturbing thing is that the book provides a plausible rationale, flawed and irrational as it is, for some of the more extreme actions and threats that the Trump administration has made against Canada. The story builds off of an actual historic military relic known as War Plan Red from the 1920s and 30s that outlined a plan for the U.S. to invade Canada. It was considered a strategic exercise rather than a real invasion plan. It was conceived not as a means to secure crucial resources at the time, but instead was intended to lessen the British Empire’s influence on North America. At the time the plan was in place, Canada was merely a British colony, not a separate, sovereign nation and crucial U.S. ally. Canada didn’t become fully independent until 1982. Picking up that piece of history and building on it in the age of the climate crisis given Canada’s wealth of natural resources combined with the effects of the recent massive wildfires that blanketed large portions of the U.S. in ash and fallout provided a potent fictional plotline for conflict between the two nations. What if somebody were cruel and power-hungry enough to start such wildfires on purpose to destroy American cities and water supplies while leaving Canada largely intact? Would that create a viable enemy? Would that create U.S. support to invade and control the resources necessary for survival? It’s a terrifying thought experiment, and it makes for a compelling story in view of current events.

Along the way, some old friends return including Agent Yvette Nichol. She’s been assigned outside of homicide to Chief Inspector Evelyn Tardiff heading the Sûreté’s organized crime unit. For much of the story, it’s not clear who Armand can trust. Unraveling the alliances is a big part of the story, and there is some misdirection along the way. It might be wise to keep a scorecard handy while reading this one, but be prepared to make several changes as the story progresses. Armand is in a difficult position this time, more so than usual as everyone’s lives are directly on the line.

There are some moments of levity and lighter action, but they are few in this story. Generally the quiet times center on Armand’s home life, and one question keeps coming up in the Gamache household. Just what is Gracie? She’s certainly a part of the family now, but she’s also likely not a dog even though she romps and plays with Henri and Fred at every turn. Perhaps Penny will eventually let us know, but it’ll be a while before readers can return to Three Pines having reached the end of the series for now.